Multivariate time series short term forecasting using cumulative data of coronavirus.

Coronavirus emerged as a highly contagious, pathogenic virus that severely affects the respiratory system of humans. The epidemic-related data is collected regularly, which machine learning algorithms can employ to comprehend and estimate valuable information. The analysis of the gathered data through time series approaches may assist in developing more accurate forecasting models and strategies to combat the disease. This paper focuses on short-term forecasting of cumulative reported incidences and mortality. Forecasting is conducted utilizing state-of-the-art mathematical and deep learning models for multivariate time series forecasting, including extended susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and vector autoregression (VAR). The SEIR model has been extended by integrating additional information such as hospitalization, mortality, vaccination, and quarantine incidences. Extensive experiments have been conducted to compare deep learning and mathematical models that enable us to estimate fatalities and incidences more precisely based on mortality in the eight most affected nations during the time of this research. The metrics like mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are employed to gauge the model's effectiveness. The deep learning model LSTM outperformed all others in terms of forecasting accuracy. Additionally, the study explores the impact of vaccination on reported epidemics and deaths worldwide. Furthermore, the detrimental effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on pathogenic virus dissemination have been analyzed.

Analysis and forecasting of air quality index based on satellite data.

OBJECTIVE: The air quality index (AQI) forecasts are one of the most important aspects of improving urban public health and enabling society to remain sustainable despite the effects of air pollution. Pollution control organizations deploy ground stations to collect information about air pollutants. Establishing a ground station all-around is not feasible due to the cost involved. As an alternative, satellite-captured data can be utilized for AQI assessment. This study explores the changes in AQI during various COVID-19 lockdowns in India utilizing satellite data. Furthermore, it addresses the effectiveness of state-of-the-art deep learning and statistical approaches for forecasting short-term AQI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Google Earth Engine (GEE) has been utilized to capture the data for the study. The satellite data has been authenticated against ground station data utilizing the beta distribution test before being incorporated into the study. The AQI forecasting has been explored using state-of-the-art statistical and deep learning approaches like VAR, Holt-Winter, and LSTM variants (stacked, bi-directional, and vanilla). RESULTS: AQI ranged from 100 to 300, from moderately polluted to very poor during the study period. The maximum reduction was recorded during the complete lockdown period in the year 2020. Short-term AQI forecasting with Holt-Winter was more accurate than other models with the lowest MAPE scores. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our findings, air pollution is clearly a threat in the studied locations, and it is important for all stakeholders to work together to reduce it. The level of air pollutants dropped substantially during the different lockdowns.